From the start nosotros were 1 community pushing the Bitcoin message to anyone who would listen. Enduring the continuous flow of bad news, disappointments in addition to barrages of ridicule from mainstream experts continually predicting Bitcoin demise. Then came 3 years of bitter infighting ridiculously over a  block size increase, which essentially is a battle for the "spirit in addition to soul" of Bitcoin. 

After the Bitcoin Cash hard fork on 1 August in addition to amongst about other upcoming hard fork, Segwit2X, nosotros are inwards the midst of the close exciting in addition to interesting catamenia inwards Bitcoin history, in addition to amongst interesting times, opportunities abound. Fortunes volition live made in addition to lost. With that inwards heed permit us drill downwardly for a closer look.

Blockchains containing the genesis block.

There receive got been many alt coins cloned in addition to inspired, from Bitcoin inwards the past, but Bitcoin Cash, Segwit2X in addition to Segwit1X are the blockchains that comprise the genesis block in addition to percentage the same hashing algorithm. It is for this argue that whatsoever of these 3 tin claim to live "The Real Bitcoin". This effect volition live determined yesteryear widespread usage in addition to adoption, in addition to the metric to rail this is transaction volume, because in the long run, transaction fees volition supplant block rewards.

Bitcoin Gold does non belong to this class, every bit it does non receive got a clear raison d'etre in addition to does non percentage the same hashing algorithm. It volition struggle to teach adoption fifty-fifty every bit it tries to usage the huge Bitcoin user base of operations for token distribution. This projection volition live stillborn, destined to live a footnote inwards Bitcoin history. If anything it volition highlight how hard the procedure is to successfully launch a novel coin.

Wealth transfer.

The upcoming Segwit2X hardfork volition live 1 of the greatest "shake out" in addition to crypto wealth transfer inwards Bitcoin history. Entrench stakeholders will, pick a incorrect side, brand a incorrect decision, in addition to win or lose a fortune. The crypto wealth landscape volition in 1 trial again modify in addition to in that location volition live 3 distinct phases.

The inaugural of all stage was the Bitcoin Cash hard fork. The determination was slow then. All yous needed to create was take away maintain in addition to yous would receive got increased your total wealth, every bit BTC in addition to BCH together had a valuation higher than earlier the fork.

This upcoming Segwit2X hardfork volition live the minute phase. Many volition sell Segwit1/2X out of pure sentiment, ideology, in addition to misleading or incomplete information. However this fourth dimension if Segwit2X survives, Segwit1X volition succumb to the chain driblet dead spiral in addition to vise versa. Pick the incorrect fork in addition to yous volition lose all your money. If Segwit1X survives yesteryear hardforking to a dissimilar proof of work, it is no longer Bitcoin.

Do null in addition to yous volition live security for a picayune while, until stage 3 which is the struggle betwixt Bitcoin Cash in addition to Segwit. This volition come upwards downwardly to adoption in addition to useability which volition live reflected inwards transaction volume.

Bitcoin Cash in addition to Segwit2X.

Ultimately Segwit is the departure betwixt the 2 chains every bit Segwit1/2X tin besides increment blocksize. What so determines adoption in addition to useability?

Bitcoin introduces the notion of triple entry accounting. The payer, the payee in addition to the blockchain. Any 2 of these records tin validate a transaction. We are looking to a time, start perhaps 5 years hence, when all commercial transactions are conducted in addition to recorded inwards bitcoin instead of fiat. The key discussion hither is "commercial". Yes. it is businesses that volition line of piece of job organization human relationship for the overwhelming bulk of all bitcoin transactions. Legitimate businesses necessitate transparency in addition to live every bit opened upwards or every bit someone every bit the Bitcoin protocol allow. Legitimate businesses volition necessitate to receive got the functionality to rail in addition to draw all their "open in addition to public" transactions.

Segwit in addition to minor blocks introduces legal in addition to transaction cost (high fees) issues which volition forbid its' usage every bit a transactional currency for businesses. The lightning network is non suitable for recording line of piece of job organization transactions every bit those transactions are off-chain in addition to non traceable.

Bitcoin Cash on the other manus retains the original blueprint of Bitcoin in addition to amongst Gigabyte blocks, tin scale on-chain amongst depression transaction fees. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 line of piece of job organization transaction volition comprise of 

1. a signature of the transaction

2. a hash of the source document 

3. a value of the transaction

With this information construction every bit the edifice block, a novel accounting organization volition evolve that tin live every bit opened upwards every bit required or every bit someone every bit needed in addition to anywhere in-between. 

Bitcoin volition genuinely revolutionize line of piece of job organization accounting every bit it introduces novel concepts of opened upwards audit in addition to existent fourth dimension accounting. Coupled amongst decentralised autonomous corporations in addition to atomic swaps, novel forms of economical entities volition emerge.

The upcoming hardfork. 

If in that location was consensus Segwit2X volition simply assume the BTC refer afterwards the fork in addition to the procedure volition live smoothen in addition to seamless. We assumed that all interested users volition upgrade to the latest version of the software. Let us examine the procedure inwards the absence of consensus.

Miners

1.0 Miners select to mine Segwit1X or Segwit2X. 

1.1 Are 100% of miners mining Segwit2X. If Yes, Goto 3.0

2.0 Compete for hashpower. 

2.1 Does Segwit2X receive got 100% hashing power. If Yes Goto 3.0

2.2 Does Segwit1X receive got 100% hashing power. If Yes Goto 4.0

2.3 Goto 2.0

3.0 Segwit2X is the existent bitcoin. End

4.0 Segwit1X is the existent bitcoin. End

Losing chain volition undergo chain driblet dead spiral in addition to terminate to exist.

Exchanges

Each BTC = BT1 (Segwit1X) + BT2 (Segwit2x) in addition to volition live traded every bit such. It is neither BT1 or BT2. New trading pairs of BTC/BT1 in addition to BTC/BT2 volition live introduced. This province of affairs volition locomote along until the winner of the hashrate state of war resolves the issue.

Update: Bitfinex in addition to Coinbase volition merchandise BX1 every bit BTC until province of affairs is resolved. Miners volition mine the close profitable coin. Will live interesting to encounter which is to a greater extent than profitable. 

If the cost on Bitfinex is right, so Segwit1X volition live the expected winner. However if Segwit2X does gets the bulk of hashing mightiness the province of affairs volition teach interesting.  Miners amongst 85% hashrate are signalling Segwit2X but they receive got non confirmed their intentions.

Before Segwit activation inwards August, Segwit1X could never teach to a greater extent than than 40% miners support. This may hateful that in that location is at to the lowest degree 60% hardcore Segwit2x miners support. 

Competition for hashing power

Miners compete based on sentiment, ideology in addition to profit. Profit calculus is directly based on the cost of BT1 or BT2 in addition to the cost of BT1 in addition to BT2 volition live related to hashing mightiness rather than persuasion or ideology. The BTC traded on exchanges is BT1+BT2 in addition to is neutral.

Nodes are non portion of this equation. This is how Bitcoin was designed. The protocol pays the miners (and entirely the miners) for securing the network. The miners should entirely live loyal to their paymaster which is the Bitcoin protocol, in addition to no 1 else. Anyone tin participate inwards this process. Anyone tin live a miner.

Conclusion

Currently hashrate signalling favours Segwit2X. If so the cost of BT2 volition live higher than BT1 mayhap inwards the ratio of their hashing power. However the cost of BT2 futures is 1/5 of BT1. There is a disconnect betwixt signalling intentions in addition to expected outcomes. Either the futures marketplace is non representative of all participants or the signalling is false.

The touchstone declaration is that hashrate follows price. In this illustration the cost of  BTC = BT1 + BT2. Segwit1X supporters were advocating that the cost of BTC is the cost of Segwit1X because it was that earlier the fork. This declaration is non supported yesteryear the exchanges. Most receive got in addition to volition select to stay neutral in addition to permit the marketplace decide.

If Segwit1X fails, Litecoin volition create goodness every bit about Core developers volition motion to piece of job amongst segwit on Litecoin. If Segwit2X succeeds unless the Core developers responsible for Segwit supports it, it volition live a less than optimal blockchain divorced from its' original developers. 

In the long run Bitcoin must live able to grip trillions of transactions a day. All the transactions inwards the the world currently using fiat. Segwit in addition to minor blocks forbid this from happening in addition to patch lightning may live useful for streaming micro payments it is non suitable for recording transactions.

Please banknote :-  These are my views in addition to are non investment advise. Analysis are commonly based on incomplete information. Trading in addition to investment inwards Bitcoin is risky. Even if the analysis is right the execution tin live faulty. Use Caution.