October 26 2017 Email from Jeff Garzik Segwit2X is total steam ahead.
November 8 2017 Segwit2X Cancelled announcement past times vi manufacture leaders.
Since Segwit activation on 23 August, the Segwit2X squad had endured 2 months of relentless bashing from the modest blockers, all the piece remaining to a greater extent than oft than non silent. So what happened betwixt Oct 26 as well as Nov 8? It can't live for the lack of consensus which was the argue given. They already knew at that topographic point was never going to live consensus. Something unexpected happened, causing them to force the "kill" switch. What was it ?
This Happened
BTC BCH TOT
26 Oct 12.16 1.33 13.49
27 Oct 9.11 3.97 13.08
28 Oct 7.37 4.29 11.66
29 Oct 8.51 0.60 9.11
30 Oct 10.46 0.38 10.84
31 Oct 11.07 0.43 11.50
01 Nov 9.72 0.45 10.17
02 Nov 11.49 0.46 11.95
03 Nov 9.76 1.99 11.75
04 Nov 8.52 1.68 10.20
05 Nov 10.51 1.02 11.53
06 Nov 10.52 1.25 11.77
07 Nov 9.86 1.24 11.10
08 Nov 11.16 1.22 11.38
From Oct 27 the hashrate for Bitcoin dropped past times over 30%.
In my previous post I postulated that the Segwit2X hard fork is a billion dollar windfall chance for miners. It is inconceivable that miners tin give the axe allow this chance dice by, without exploiting it.
My guess is that a consortium had indeed hatch a conception to accept wages of this opportunity. I suspect that they approached Jihan Wu as well as he turned them down. Bitmain is a Billion dollar international describe of piece of occupation organisation amongst firm working capital missive of the alphabet investments as well as cannot live seen to live tainted past times whatsoever fallout from this "Billion Dollar Hiest". If y'all facial expression at the names of the other signatories, aside from Jeff Garzik, all are good known names inwards the Bitcoin space, operating forepart cease client based businesses. These people are distancing their businesses as well as themselves from the fallout, when "the shit hits the fan". Jeff Garzick provided credibility every bit he is Pb developer.
Sure plenty inside 12 hours this reply was posted. This message past times Bitpico
"We are carrying out the fork regardless every bit everything is laid inwards motion. Backing downwards the difficulty correct right away is a strategy. Wonder why 30% network hash-rate disappeared? It’s ours; the miners that volition dice on what is laid inwards motion... H5N1 handful of humans cannot halt what they receive got no command over..."
This message was dismissed every bit FUD as well as trolling. I disagree. I retrieve they are deadly serious. There is also much money at stake. Since as well as so they receive got also seat upward a website bitcoin2x.org.
Can They Execute ?
1) A Consortium Of Miners.
Examine the miners pie chart. The pool ratio for the iv days as well as 24 hours are fairly similar. We don't encounter a drib out of whatsoever unmarried puddle or grouping of miners. Suggest a consortium working together. From the tabular array above, they produce seem to command 30% of the hash ability every bit they claim.
2) The Play
I encounter this play out inwards 2 parts. First the flippening ( Pivot to Bitcoin Cash ) as well as secondly the Segwit futures. For the flippening they get-go past times taking huge positions inwards Bitcoin Cash at about .05BTC.
Possible mining percentage breakdown on the separate chains.
Bitcoin Cash : Bitcoin.com, Viabtc, Unknown : 30%
Segwit2X : Consortium, Unknown : 40%
Segwit1X : Antpool, Bitfury : 30%
Come xvi Nov both Segwit chains volition live slow. We may acquire 1 hr blocks on the Segwit2X chain, as well as fifty-fifty longer on the Segwit1X chain. Bitcoin Cash volition receive got real fast block times as well as the Chain Death Spiral. In the meantime, the "Rouge" miners volition dice on mining the Segwit2X chain at a loss.
Will the exchanges recognise Segwit2X every bit Bitcoin if it has the greater accumulated hashing every bit announced before the fork was cancelled? I incertitude it. They volition to a greater extent than probable persuasion it every bit an assault on Bitcoin as well as spend upward listing them. If other exchanges similar Hitbtc get-go listing their coins as well as so the game changes again, as well as that volition live some other complication.
How long would they dice on mining at a loss? My guess is that amongst 30% of hashpower it volition cost them but about 1 1000000 dollars a day. They volition brand many times that amongst the gains inwards the cost of BCH. I retrieve they tin give the axe dice on this stand-off for every bit long every bit is needed.
When the "Rouge" miners are sure enough that Segwit1X is no longer viable, or if Segwit2X hard fork off the network, they volition abandon the Segwit2X chain every bit good as well as displace over to Bitcoin Cash. By as well as so fifty-fifty Antpool cannot salve the day. Both the Segwit chains volition live "dead". Only 1 chain volition live left - Bitcoin Cash ---> Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Cash Is The Real Bitcoin
Will the existent Bitcoin delight stand upward up
Bitcoin. Its a affair of trust.
The futures play was easy. Intially it must live to purchase BT2 tokens as well as brand them BTC for a huge profit, as well as so proceed to the flippening. The Segwit2X cancellation annunciation was likely unexpected. It stopped this play past times tanking the futures, nonetheless they were able to choice upward tens of thousands of Segwit2X tokens for pennies, as well as are right away selling to high adventure taking investors betting that Segwit2X volition dice the novel BTC.
No Segwit2X gratis dividend
3) Bitcoin has no masters as well as takes no prisoners
The annunciation signed past times but vi people cancelling the hard fork, is inwards itself ludicrous. This is non how Bitcoin plant as well as they know it. Did they truly facial expression the miners to but abide past times their proclamation, move out their money on the tabular array as well as walk away from billions of dollars? Get existent please. Legacy Bitcoin's seeds of devastation was sown when "self imposed managers" surreptitiously forced the dorsum door activation of Segwit. The consequences as well as the follow on effects later on Segwit2X activates, but dawned on them, as well as they honour themselves "staring into the abyss".
People belongings legacy bitcoin are going to lose their money, investment as well as nest egg, through no error of their own. I can't fifty-fifty start out to retrieve on how this fallout volition devastate peoples lives. This volition live a total wealth transfer from BTC to Bitcoin Cash. The lesson is simple. Leave Bitcoin alone. Bitcoin has no masters as well as takes no prisoners.
4) Disruption
If disruption to their services is what they promise to avoid past times cancelling Segwit2X, I am afraid disruption is what they volition get. Bitcoin is immutable code. Not managed protocol. Only Bitcoin Cash volition stay on the electrical current most secure Proof Of Work. There volition live no to a greater extent than "opportunistic as well as contentious forks" from the Bitcoin blockchain inwards the future, later on this episode plays out.
Bitcoin Cash does non demand anybody to confer upon it the lift Bitcoin. It but is. It ever was. Should Bitcoin Cash worry virtually "Rouge" miners? I retrieve not. We don't fright "Rouge" miners. Only "Rouge" developers.
Core volition receive got to alter Segwit1X PW to live on as well as proclaim their chain to live the existent Bitcoin. But it wont work. H5N1 chain amongst a dissimilar proof of run is non Bitcoin. They tin give the axe tinker amongst Segwit on their chain every bit much every bit they similar but without the economical incentives to follow, they volition shortly lose interest.
5) Final Analysis
a) I experience sorry for people who bought bitcoin later on 1 August 2017. Theirs volition live a huge loss. Buying inwards at upward to $7500 as well as seeing it dice to zero. Some of these people climb onto the bandwagon trusting bitcoin to live a shop of value. To some this volition live their life savings as well as they volition encounter it disappear. I cannot limited my sadness for these people. I covered this inwards my posts
BTC Is Dead. Long Live BTC.
BTC Is Dead. Long Live BTC, Updated as well as Explained ELI5
b) People who ain BTC before August 1 got their resources allotment of Bitcoin Cash. The distressing role is that most were persuaded past times the dominant crypto media as well as forums to sell their Bitcoin Cash as well as purchase to a greater extent than BTC. If they had taken that advice, they volition cease upward penniless. Lesson for the media is, inform as well as educate, non indoctrinate. Will they learn? NO. At to the lowest degree they volition know the hurting of those they wound if they took their ain advice.
c) For fund managers who receive got divested their holdings of Bitcoin Cash, at that topographic point volition live much explanations ahead. Segwit1X without EDA protection ever had a non null existential threat of going to zero, a victim of the Chain Death Spiral. Not slap-up to wake upward 1 morn only to encounter a 100 1000000 dollars bitcoin fund dice to zero.
d) Coinbase would truly come upward out smelling similar roses because they would receive got protected their customers from heir ain folly, past times witholding their BCH until Jan 2018.
5) Fear Uncertainity as well as Doubt?
In my before posts I placed a caveat hoping that I was incorrect because the implications of people losing money as well as their savings through no error of their ain is also horrendous to comprehend. I am right away convinced that I was non wrong. I am afraid. Very afraid.
Will this kill Bitcoin. Of course of teaching not, but hopefully nosotros tin give the axe seat inwards house some programs to minimise the negative human cost of this momentous wealth transfer as well as its' aftermath. There volition live many who volition non believe inwards this coming apocalypse. All I tin give the axe produce is warn as well as inform. Must add together that my posts receive got been censored from r/bitcoin.
6) Can It Be Averted?
Sadly no. In the long term, only 1 money tin give the axe stay on the electrical current Bitcoin Proof Of Work, unless both coins receive got EDA. In the curt term, that is inwards iv days, some miners volition get-go mining Segwit2X, hence starting this whole procedure of devastation as well as renewal of the Bitcoin landscape. I had previously expected it to hand off inwards 2 stages. First the demise of Segwit1X as well as an extended tussle betwixt Segwit2X as well as Bitcoin Cash over several months. It is right away clear that the fourth dimension frame for both these events has been compressed as well as volition play out side past times side week. When the dust settles, Bitcoin Cash volition live the only money left standing as well as volition dice on to orbit the predicted valuations of 1 1000000 dollars a coin. I suppose nosotros receive got to pause eggs to brand omelette.
Footnote: Legacy Bitcoin mempool exceeded 100K. The chain is unusable for the bulk of users. This is only iv days away from the activation of Segwit2X. It is going to acquire worse. Much worse. Was non going to post until later on the fork but the cancellation of Segwit2X changed that.
November 8 2017 Segwit2X Cancelled announcement past times vi manufacture leaders.
This Happened
26 Oct 12.16 1.33 13.49
27 Oct 9.11 3.97 13.08
28 Oct 7.37 4.29 11.66
29 Oct 8.51 0.60 9.11
30 Oct 10.46 0.38 10.84
31 Oct 11.07 0.43 11.50
01 Nov 9.72 0.45 10.17
02 Nov 11.49 0.46 11.95
03 Nov 9.76 1.99 11.75
04 Nov 8.52 1.68 10.20
05 Nov 10.51 1.02 11.53
06 Nov 10.52 1.25 11.77
07 Nov 9.86 1.24 11.10
08 Nov 11.16 1.22 11.38
From Oct 27 the hashrate for Bitcoin dropped past times over 30%.
In my previous post I postulated that the Segwit2X hard fork is a billion dollar windfall chance for miners. It is inconceivable that miners tin give the axe allow this chance dice by, without exploiting it.
My guess is that a consortium had indeed hatch a conception to accept wages of this opportunity. I suspect that they approached Jihan Wu as well as he turned them down. Bitmain is a Billion dollar international describe of piece of occupation organisation amongst firm working capital missive of the alphabet investments as well as cannot live seen to live tainted past times whatsoever fallout from this "Billion Dollar Hiest". If y'all facial expression at the names of the other signatories, aside from Jeff Garzik, all are good known names inwards the Bitcoin space, operating forepart cease client based businesses. These people are distancing their businesses as well as themselves from the fallout, when "the shit hits the fan". Jeff Garzick provided credibility every bit he is Pb developer.
Sure plenty inside 12 hours this reply was posted. This message past times Bitpico
"We are carrying out the fork regardless every bit everything is laid inwards motion. Backing downwards the difficulty correct right away is a strategy. Wonder why 30% network hash-rate disappeared? It’s ours; the miners that volition dice on what is laid inwards motion... H5N1 handful of humans cannot halt what they receive got no command over..."
This message was dismissed every bit FUD as well as trolling. I disagree. I retrieve they are deadly serious. There is also much money at stake. Since as well as so they receive got also seat upward a website bitcoin2x.org.
Can They Execute ?
1) A Consortium Of Miners.
Examine the miners pie chart. The pool ratio for the iv days as well as 24 hours are fairly similar. We don't encounter a drib out of whatsoever unmarried puddle or grouping of miners. Suggest a consortium working together. From the tabular array above, they produce seem to command 30% of the hash ability every bit they claim.
2) The Play
I encounter this play out inwards 2 parts. First the flippening ( Pivot to Bitcoin Cash ) as well as secondly the Segwit futures. For the flippening they get-go past times taking huge positions inwards Bitcoin Cash at about .05BTC.
Possible mining percentage breakdown on the separate chains.
Bitcoin Cash : Bitcoin.com, Viabtc, Unknown : 30%
Segwit2X : Consortium, Unknown : 40%
Segwit1X : Antpool, Bitfury : 30%
Come xvi Nov both Segwit chains volition live slow. We may acquire 1 hr blocks on the Segwit2X chain, as well as fifty-fifty longer on the Segwit1X chain. Bitcoin Cash volition receive got real fast block times as well as the Chain Death Spiral. In the meantime, the "Rouge" miners volition dice on mining the Segwit2X chain at a loss.
Will the exchanges recognise Segwit2X every bit Bitcoin if it has the greater accumulated hashing every bit announced before the fork was cancelled? I incertitude it. They volition to a greater extent than probable persuasion it every bit an assault on Bitcoin as well as spend upward listing them. If other exchanges similar Hitbtc get-go listing their coins as well as so the game changes again, as well as that volition live some other complication.
How long would they dice on mining at a loss? My guess is that amongst 30% of hashpower it volition cost them but about 1 1000000 dollars a day. They volition brand many times that amongst the gains inwards the cost of BCH. I retrieve they tin give the axe dice on this stand-off for every bit long every bit is needed.
When the "Rouge" miners are sure enough that Segwit1X is no longer viable, or if Segwit2X hard fork off the network, they volition abandon the Segwit2X chain every bit good as well as displace over to Bitcoin Cash. By as well as so fifty-fifty Antpool cannot salve the day. Both the Segwit chains volition live "dead". Only 1 chain volition live left - Bitcoin Cash ---> Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Cash Is The Real Bitcoin
Will the existent Bitcoin delight stand upward up
Bitcoin. Its a affair of trust.
The futures play was easy. Intially it must live to purchase BT2 tokens as well as brand them BTC for a huge profit, as well as so proceed to the flippening. The Segwit2X cancellation annunciation was likely unexpected. It stopped this play past times tanking the futures, nonetheless they were able to choice upward tens of thousands of Segwit2X tokens for pennies, as well as are right away selling to high adventure taking investors betting that Segwit2X volition dice the novel BTC.
No Segwit2X gratis dividend
3) Bitcoin has no masters as well as takes no prisoners
The annunciation signed past times but vi people cancelling the hard fork, is inwards itself ludicrous. This is non how Bitcoin plant as well as they know it. Did they truly facial expression the miners to but abide past times their proclamation, move out their money on the tabular array as well as walk away from billions of dollars? Get existent please. Legacy Bitcoin's seeds of devastation was sown when "self imposed managers" surreptitiously forced the dorsum door activation of Segwit. The consequences as well as the follow on effects later on Segwit2X activates, but dawned on them, as well as they honour themselves "staring into the abyss".
People belongings legacy bitcoin are going to lose their money, investment as well as nest egg, through no error of their own. I can't fifty-fifty start out to retrieve on how this fallout volition devastate peoples lives. This volition live a total wealth transfer from BTC to Bitcoin Cash. The lesson is simple. Leave Bitcoin alone. Bitcoin has no masters as well as takes no prisoners.
4) Disruption
If disruption to their services is what they promise to avoid past times cancelling Segwit2X, I am afraid disruption is what they volition get. Bitcoin is immutable code. Not managed protocol. Only Bitcoin Cash volition stay on the electrical current most secure Proof Of Work. There volition live no to a greater extent than "opportunistic as well as contentious forks" from the Bitcoin blockchain inwards the future, later on this episode plays out.
Bitcoin Cash does non demand anybody to confer upon it the lift Bitcoin. It but is. It ever was. Should Bitcoin Cash worry virtually "Rouge" miners? I retrieve not. We don't fright "Rouge" miners. Only "Rouge" developers.
Core volition receive got to alter Segwit1X PW to live on as well as proclaim their chain to live the existent Bitcoin. But it wont work. H5N1 chain amongst a dissimilar proof of run is non Bitcoin. They tin give the axe tinker amongst Segwit on their chain every bit much every bit they similar but without the economical incentives to follow, they volition shortly lose interest.
5) Final Analysis
a) I experience sorry for people who bought bitcoin later on 1 August 2017. Theirs volition live a huge loss. Buying inwards at upward to $7500 as well as seeing it dice to zero. Some of these people climb onto the bandwagon trusting bitcoin to live a shop of value. To some this volition live their life savings as well as they volition encounter it disappear. I cannot limited my sadness for these people. I covered this inwards my posts
BTC Is Dead. Long Live BTC.
BTC Is Dead. Long Live BTC, Updated as well as Explained ELI5
b) People who ain BTC before August 1 got their resources allotment of Bitcoin Cash. The distressing role is that most were persuaded past times the dominant crypto media as well as forums to sell their Bitcoin Cash as well as purchase to a greater extent than BTC. If they had taken that advice, they volition cease upward penniless. Lesson for the media is, inform as well as educate, non indoctrinate. Will they learn? NO. At to the lowest degree they volition know the hurting of those they wound if they took their ain advice.
c) For fund managers who receive got divested their holdings of Bitcoin Cash, at that topographic point volition live much explanations ahead. Segwit1X without EDA protection ever had a non null existential threat of going to zero, a victim of the Chain Death Spiral. Not slap-up to wake upward 1 morn only to encounter a 100 1000000 dollars bitcoin fund dice to zero.
d) Coinbase would truly come upward out smelling similar roses because they would receive got protected their customers from heir ain folly, past times witholding their BCH until Jan 2018.
5) Fear Uncertainity as well as Doubt?
In my before posts I placed a caveat hoping that I was incorrect because the implications of people losing money as well as their savings through no error of their ain is also horrendous to comprehend. I am right away convinced that I was non wrong. I am afraid. Very afraid.
Will this kill Bitcoin. Of course of teaching not, but hopefully nosotros tin give the axe seat inwards house some programs to minimise the negative human cost of this momentous wealth transfer as well as its' aftermath. There volition live many who volition non believe inwards this coming apocalypse. All I tin give the axe produce is warn as well as inform. Must add together that my posts receive got been censored from r/bitcoin.
6) Can It Be Averted?
Sadly no. In the long term, only 1 money tin give the axe stay on the electrical current Bitcoin Proof Of Work, unless both coins receive got EDA. In the curt term, that is inwards iv days, some miners volition get-go mining Segwit2X, hence starting this whole procedure of devastation as well as renewal of the Bitcoin landscape. I had previously expected it to hand off inwards 2 stages. First the demise of Segwit1X as well as an extended tussle betwixt Segwit2X as well as Bitcoin Cash over several months. It is right away clear that the fourth dimension frame for both these events has been compressed as well as volition play out side past times side week. When the dust settles, Bitcoin Cash volition live the only money left standing as well as volition dice on to orbit the predicted valuations of 1 1000000 dollars a coin. I suppose nosotros receive got to pause eggs to brand omelette.
We volition know inwards iv days nevertheless. When inwards incertitude "Follow The Money".
Footnote: Legacy Bitcoin mempool exceeded 100K. The chain is unusable for the bulk of users. This is only iv days away from the activation of Segwit2X. It is going to acquire worse. Much worse. Was non going to post until later on the fork but the cancellation of Segwit2X changed that.
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