In this article I acquaint the facts equally I encounter them as well as larn out it to yous to attain your ain conclusions. My opinions are my ain as well as I encourage yous to make your ain due diligence. I could live wrong. It is your hard earned money.
Rehashing as well as analysing the figures over the catamenia of the fork it is clear forthwith that Bitcoin Cash had a hard birth. Looking dorsum I am convince that it would get got been highly unlikely to succeed. I mean value what eventually happened was planned as well as executed past times persons unknown who clearly wanted Bitcoin Cash to succeed. The fundamental is to analyse the available hash might as well as expression at how it was applied.
Refer hither to Jimmy Song's article on how the Emergency Difficulty Adjuster (EDA) kicked in. Before it tin live activated at to the lowest degree 12 blocks must live mined! ( The UAHF specifications. Starting block 478557.)
The First 12 Blocks
( Approximate Time Lapse betwixt blocks)
August 1st 2017 AM 8:16:14
August 1st 2017 PM 1:12:41 four hours 56 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 1:33:06 21 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 1:37:19 4 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 1:52:58 15 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 2:37:44 44 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 4:05:15 1 hr 28 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 4:35:44 xxx mins
August 1st 2017 PM 4:39:21 four mins
August 1st 2017 PM 6:38:29 1 hr 59 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 8:07:01 1 hr 29 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 9:51:49 1 hr 44 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 10:15:01 23 mins
Looking at the figures I would seat around in that place was close 1 hr betwixt blocks. At the same difficulty of BTC's 6500 Peta Hashes producing 10 infinitesimal blocks, nosotros volition ask at to the lowest degree 1/6 the hashing might to create 1 hr blocks. That is close 1200 Peta Hashes.
BTC BCH TOT BTC BCH BTC BCH BTC
( Hash Power ) ( Difficulty) ( Block Time ) (mempool)
31 July 6163 860
1 August 6440 1525 7965 860 860 9.66 160 5
two August 6433 378 860 860 9.47 205 5
three August 5931 447 860 860 10.43 41 10
four August 7749 216 7965 860 225 8.04 75 23
five August 7473 143 7617 860 225 8.13 110 5
vi August 6023 499 6612 860 114 10.28 22 3
seven August 6637 551 7188 860 114 9.41 18 33
8 August 6835 154 6989 923 115 8.78 62 35
ix August 6200 541 6741 923 115 10.43 15 43
10 August 6165 576 6741 923 115 10.74 14 42
xi August 6600 338 6938 923 115 10.00 21 55
Prior to 1 August the highest amount of hash might recorded was on 24 July at 7118 Peta Hashes. This is around grand PH over full hash might on 31 July. We tin thence live certain that at to the lowest degree this amount of hashing might was available as well as at to the lowest degree 678PH was "floating" as well as withheld from the system. The maximum hash might always applied to the BTC as well as BCH chains was 7965 PH inward full on four August.
We know nosotros ask at to the lowest degree 1200 PH mining on the BCH chain on 1 August to honour the offset 12 blocks. From the to a higher house tabular array nosotros tin encounter inward ruby-red that in that place was at to the lowest degree 1500 PH available as well as I believe this was directed to mine the BCH chain. Without this input, it would get got taken close three days to mine the offset 12 blocks as well as the BCH chain would get got been a failure.
The Morning After
Once EDA kicked in, the BCH chain is assured of survival. The side past times side objective is to larn the block fourth dimension downwards to 10 minutes as well as profitable mining equally presently equally possible. Or is it? Hashing might was taken off BCH chain on the four as well as five August to trigger the vi blocks difficulty reductions as well as in i lawsuit to a greater extent than on eighth August for 1 additional reduction The BCH chain was left at xv minutes close four blocks every hour.
In add-on on four as well as five of August close 7500 PH of hashing might was applied to the BTC chain. Was this done to force upward the side past times side difficulty adjustment to 923G on 8 August as well as maybe higher at the side past times side difficulty adjustment? (Bitcoin Wisdom)
This "floating" 1500 PH was withdrawn on vi August. As of xi August in that place is nonetheless at to the lowest degree 1200 PH of hashing might "floating" as well as withheld from the system. So who is this mystery miner or miners? What is their intention ?
The Aftermath
We tin encounter that on ix August close 600 PH was withdrawn from the BTC chain pushing the block fourth dimension to a higher house 10 minutes. The number is that the BTC chain is clogging upward amongst depression fee transactions as well as the mempool has already reached 57MB. Only those willing to pay high fees tin larn their transactions processed. Unless in that place is a fast injection of mining might this chain is inward trouble! It does non get got the protection of EDA as well as the Chain Death Spiral tin easily laid inward if non already started.
Voila equally if past times magic, today, xi August 500 PH was returned to mining the BTC chain as well as 250PH was taken off the BCH chain. This nonetheless leaves close 1000PH nonetheless "floating".
Over the whole of this catamenia BTC stayed to a higher house $3200 as well as went to a higher house $3500 yesterday as well as $3700 today. All of Bitcoin mainstream was celebrating, attributing it to CORE as well as Segwit.
I believe that this celebration is premature. BTC ascent could live the number of globe tensions inward regards to the USA as well as North Korea, a worsening global economic scheme as well as gilt non making whatever impact, The province of affairs must live bad plenty for investors to but ignore as well as overlook BTC's vulnerability. Currently BCH, which I believe to live the existent Bitcoin, is selling at a bargain.
Beware Smoke And Mirrors
There is much going on behind the scenes. Nothing is what it appears. Hashing might is beingness used to influence as well as manipulate the market. The high BTC toll is keen for those wanting to sell their BTC as well as accumulate BCH. This volition number inward a major wealth transfer from those belongings BTC to those belongings BCH. I believe that the truthful Bitcoin volition flip from BTC to BCH but that is but my opinion.
A Great Game Of Poker
In this game, real few people are showing their hand. The Bitcoin whales get got gone into deep dive as well as get got non been seen or heard from since the chain fork. When the fourth dimension comes to exhibit their hands in that place volition live winners as well as losers. I mean value that the unexpected ascent as well as forcefulness of BTC toll is a complication but it volition non modify the "game plan".
I tin exclusively acquaint the facts equally I encounter them as well as the determination I depict are my own. You could easily shape a different persuasion looking at the same facts but that is your right. In the destination when the tide goes out nosotros tin all encounter who is without clothes.
In this surroundings I am guided past times principles. The reality inward Bitcoin is that in that place is no Government to dominion as well as favour whatever faction or group. It is nature at its' purest. Only the potent travel as well as whatever weakness is punished. I believe inward its' electrical current shape BTC has a vulnerability (No EDA) as well as that volition atomic number 82 to its' demise. Three months is a long fourth dimension inward crypto.
Related Articles
Chain Death Spiral - Here
BTC is Dead - Long Live BTC - Here
BTC is Dead - Long Live BTC Updated as well as Explained ELI5 - Here
Rehashing as well as analysing the figures over the catamenia of the fork it is clear forthwith that Bitcoin Cash had a hard birth. Looking dorsum I am convince that it would get got been highly unlikely to succeed. I mean value what eventually happened was planned as well as executed past times persons unknown who clearly wanted Bitcoin Cash to succeed. The fundamental is to analyse the available hash might as well as expression at how it was applied.
Refer hither to Jimmy Song's article on how the Emergency Difficulty Adjuster (EDA) kicked in. Before it tin live activated at to the lowest degree 12 blocks must live mined! ( The UAHF specifications. Starting block 478557.)
The First 12 Blocks
( Approximate Time Lapse betwixt blocks)
August 1st 2017 AM 8:16:14
August 1st 2017 PM 1:12:41 four hours 56 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 1:33:06 21 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 1:37:19 4 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 1:52:58 15 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 2:37:44 44 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 4:05:15 1 hr 28 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 4:35:44 xxx mins
August 1st 2017 PM 4:39:21 four mins
August 1st 2017 PM 6:38:29 1 hr 59 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 8:07:01 1 hr 29 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 9:51:49 1 hr 44 mins
August 1st 2017 PM 10:15:01 23 mins
Looking at the figures I would seat around in that place was close 1 hr betwixt blocks. At the same difficulty of BTC's 6500 Peta Hashes producing 10 infinitesimal blocks, nosotros volition ask at to the lowest degree 1/6 the hashing might to create 1 hr blocks. That is close 1200 Peta Hashes.
( Hash Power ) ( Difficulty) ( Block Time ) (mempool)
31 July 6163 860
1 August 6440 1525 7965 860 860 9.66 160 5
two August 6433 378 860 860 9.47 205 5
three August 5931 447 860 860 10.43 41 10
four August 7749 216 7965 860 225 8.04 75 23
five August 7473 143 7617 860 225 8.13 110 5
vi August 6023 499 6612 860 114 10.28 22 3
seven August 6637 551 7188 860 114 9.41 18 33
8 August 6835 154 6989 923 115 8.78 62 35
ix August 6200 541 6741 923 115 10.43 15 43
10 August 6165 576 6741 923 115 10.74 14 42
xi August 6600 338 6938 923 115 10.00 21 55
Prior to 1 August the highest amount of hash might recorded was on 24 July at 7118 Peta Hashes. This is around grand PH over full hash might on 31 July. We tin thence live certain that at to the lowest degree this amount of hashing might was available as well as at to the lowest degree 678PH was "floating" as well as withheld from the system. The maximum hash might always applied to the BTC as well as BCH chains was 7965 PH inward full on four August.
We know nosotros ask at to the lowest degree 1200 PH mining on the BCH chain on 1 August to honour the offset 12 blocks. From the to a higher house tabular array nosotros tin encounter inward ruby-red that in that place was at to the lowest degree 1500 PH available as well as I believe this was directed to mine the BCH chain. Without this input, it would get got taken close three days to mine the offset 12 blocks as well as the BCH chain would get got been a failure.
The Morning After
Once EDA kicked in, the BCH chain is assured of survival. The side past times side objective is to larn the block fourth dimension downwards to 10 minutes as well as profitable mining equally presently equally possible. Or is it? Hashing might was taken off BCH chain on the four as well as five August to trigger the vi blocks difficulty reductions as well as in i lawsuit to a greater extent than on eighth August for 1 additional reduction The BCH chain was left at xv minutes close four blocks every hour.
In add-on on four as well as five of August close 7500 PH of hashing might was applied to the BTC chain. Was this done to force upward the side past times side difficulty adjustment to 923G on 8 August as well as maybe higher at the side past times side difficulty adjustment? (Bitcoin Wisdom)
This "floating" 1500 PH was withdrawn on vi August. As of xi August in that place is nonetheless at to the lowest degree 1200 PH of hashing might "floating" as well as withheld from the system. So who is this mystery miner or miners? What is their intention ?
The Aftermath
We tin encounter that on ix August close 600 PH was withdrawn from the BTC chain pushing the block fourth dimension to a higher house 10 minutes. The number is that the BTC chain is clogging upward amongst depression fee transactions as well as the mempool has already reached 57MB. Only those willing to pay high fees tin larn their transactions processed. Unless in that place is a fast injection of mining might this chain is inward trouble! It does non get got the protection of EDA as well as the Chain Death Spiral tin easily laid inward if non already started.
Voila equally if past times magic, today, xi August 500 PH was returned to mining the BTC chain as well as 250PH was taken off the BCH chain. This nonetheless leaves close 1000PH nonetheless "floating".
Over the whole of this catamenia BTC stayed to a higher house $3200 as well as went to a higher house $3500 yesterday as well as $3700 today. All of Bitcoin mainstream was celebrating, attributing it to CORE as well as Segwit.
I believe that this celebration is premature. BTC ascent could live the number of globe tensions inward regards to the USA as well as North Korea, a worsening global economic scheme as well as gilt non making whatever impact, The province of affairs must live bad plenty for investors to but ignore as well as overlook BTC's vulnerability. Currently BCH, which I believe to live the existent Bitcoin, is selling at a bargain.
Beware Smoke And Mirrors
There is much going on behind the scenes. Nothing is what it appears. Hashing might is beingness used to influence as well as manipulate the market. The high BTC toll is keen for those wanting to sell their BTC as well as accumulate BCH. This volition number inward a major wealth transfer from those belongings BTC to those belongings BCH. I believe that the truthful Bitcoin volition flip from BTC to BCH but that is but my opinion.
A Great Game Of Poker
In this game, real few people are showing their hand. The Bitcoin whales get got gone into deep dive as well as get got non been seen or heard from since the chain fork. When the fourth dimension comes to exhibit their hands in that place volition live winners as well as losers. I mean value that the unexpected ascent as well as forcefulness of BTC toll is a complication but it volition non modify the "game plan".
I tin exclusively acquaint the facts equally I encounter them as well as the determination I depict are my own. You could easily shape a different persuasion looking at the same facts but that is your right. In the destination when the tide goes out nosotros tin all encounter who is without clothes.
In this surroundings I am guided past times principles. The reality inward Bitcoin is that in that place is no Government to dominion as well as favour whatever faction or group. It is nature at its' purest. Only the potent travel as well as whatever weakness is punished. I believe inward its' electrical current shape BTC has a vulnerability (No EDA) as well as that volition atomic number 82 to its' demise. Three months is a long fourth dimension inward crypto.
Related Articles
Chain Death Spiral - Here
BTC is Dead - Long Live BTC - Here
BTC is Dead - Long Live BTC Updated as well as Explained ELI5 - Here
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