BITCOIN BUSSINESS Chain Death Spiral - Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Fatal Bitcoin Vulnerability

Back inward Bitcoin history, when Argentinian millionaire Wences Caseres ( Xapo, Paypal) came across Bitcoin he saw it equally a potential solution to the periodic fiscal turmoil that totally wipes off the wealth of hard working Argentinians. In what I reckon a real prudent deed of due diligence, he paid a couplet of hackers a sizable amount of money to hack as well as suspension the fledgling Bitcoin. Their determination was that it was unbreakable as well as that has remained truthful until today. The Bitcoin protocol has never been hacked. The vulnerabilities were the trusted infrastructure only about it similar the exchanges. The most memorable beingness MT Gox.

However on the 1st August 2017, Bitcoin primary chain forked as well as a novel money Bitcoin Cash (BCH) came into existence. Some fighting that it is closer to Satoshi's vision than the electrical flow Bitcoin (BTC) which split upward the information division from the address division of the information structure. BTC became the primary money because it was supported yesteryear the bulk of users, developers, Bitcoin businesses as well as miners inward what is forthwith knows equally the New York Agreement.

Chain Death Spiral. (CDS)
After Bitcoin fork on 1 August it became obvious that Bitcoin the protocol did receive got an inherent vulnerability. This was that if the chain loses mining might it volition receive got to human face a total 2016 blocks earlier the difficulty tin locomote adjusted to choose the block fourth dimension dorsum to the normal 10 minutes. This vulnerability was never considered or analysed because until forthwith the miners had no selection but to locomote on mining on the Bitcoin chain. After the fork however, the whole landscape has changed. Miners receive got a selection as well as might to influence the fate of the chain they are mining on.

This was brought clearly into focus when the blocktime of the BCH fork went equally high equally xv hours per block inward the beginning. BCH yet was designed alongside Emergency Difficulty Adjustment (EDA) which adjusted the difficulty fifty-fifty earlier the 2016 block adjustment catamenia is up. Bitcoin (BTC) does non receive got this security characteristic as well as cannot receive got 1 unless a hardfork is performed to include it.

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Chain Death Spiral occurs when the block fourth dimension increases leading to some miners switching chain. As to a greater extent than miners larn out the work gets worse as well as a feedback loop results inward the dreaded Chain Death Spiral.


Bitcoin (BTC) mempool been increasing since afterward the fork on 1st August. It is currently 52MB which agency it volition receive got 52 blocks to clear without whatever additional transactions. The tape was inward May 2017 when it reached 120MB. The whole community was inward an uproar resulting inward a motion towards other competing coins for transacting.


Looking at the hashrate distribution as well as starting from the sixth August nosotros larn the following


    (Peta Hash)         BTC         BCH       TOTAL  (Block Time)  BTC       BCH

half dozen August 2017        7473         143            7617                           8.13         110
seven August 2017        6023         499            6612                         10.28           22.15
8 August 2017        6637         551            7188                           9.41           18.46                    
ix August 2017        6835         154            6989                           8.78           62
10 August 2017      6200         541            6741                          10.43          15


Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 painting exhibit is forming. Between 8 to 10 August roughly 400 petahashes moved out of BCH which triggered the EDA adjustments hence motion dorsum in. In improver in that place was a loss of 200 Peta Hashes on the ninth August as well as a farther 200 Peta Hashes loss on the tenth August.

The electrical flow BTC mempool is 50MB as well as blocktime is 10.28 minutes. There is clearly a evolution as well as it volition larn clearer today. Will the 400 Peta Hashes larn out BCH over again or volition the hashing might on BTC decrease further. What happened to the 400 Peta Hashes missing since eighth August. The BTC chain cannot afford farther loss of hashing power. Its' blocktime must come upward dorsum to inside 10 minutes as well as soon.

What is certainly is that the electrical flow cost of BTC is non justified alongside this inherent vulnerability, gamble of the dreaded Chain Death Spiral. Have investors totally abandoned whatever idea of immutable economical security as well as due diligence? It is incredible how nosotros lose sight of the risks when nosotros bamboozled alongside riches, hype as well as misinformation through censorship.

It is other peoples' hard earned money as well as other peoples' investments. Even the possibility that this "black swan event" tin compass must locomote addressed. It should never locomote censored speech.

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Intelligent Comments
from coinsinspace via /r/Bitcoin sent 
It's a textbook dark swan because bulk dismisses it automatically equally impossible, yet it's unlikely but possible, as well as it would locomote real probable fatal.
If bitcoin was the exclusively feasible sha256 money that would locomote a much smaller danger. In that instance the mining might would receive got to completely disappear for long. It's much to a greater extent than probable if miners tin switch, specially if the other chain is to a greater extent than profitable.
Once that happens in that place are several factors all accelerating the problem:
(1) Mining rewards tin exclusively locomote spent afterward 100 blocks. Normally that's almost 17 hours. If 90% of mining might disappeared that would receive got a week. So that's a strong incentive to mine something else (if available) inward itself.
(2) Bitcoin economic scheme grinds to a halt, equally transactions locomote increasingly impossible. This leads many people alongside coins on exchanges to purchase other coins only to locomote able to transact, which lowers the price, making the choice chain fifty-fifty to a greater extent than attractive for miners.
Which agency that, equally miners leave, the higher incentive the remaining miners receive got to likewise leave. In the lawsuit that almost all miners larn out the difficulty reset never happens equally chain dies.

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